Once again, we wake to the news of more record highs. This time it’s in the FTSE. 9 months ago, we were warned that Brexit may knock the markets by 10%, if Trump became president maybe they may fall 20%, yet here we stand at record levels. The explanation for this is easy. The world has gone mad. Last night we saw the FED finally start the path of normalisation on rate with a hike. Predicted to be 1 of 4 but most likely 3. In traditional economic models hikes in rates send markets down. Not in the new exciting world of ‘no news is bad news for stocks’.
On the serious side investors, with a lack of alternatives (interest on cash) have forgotten stocks are a risky investment. What goes up will come down. Now the FED are making cash more attractive and people will eventually pull out risky investments and put them into cash. The UK seems to be less willing to raise rates, but they are both cyclical and inevitable. They will go up soon.
The FTSE will target 7500, that is the next psychological testing point. Although it has never seemed comfortable above 7k the trend is clearly bullish. Selling new highs is not the strategy in this new ‘stocks at any cost’ mentality.